MODELS FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST-ING OF THE AMOUNT OF MIGRATION OF FIRST-GENERATION MOTHS INTO THE OUTBREAKING AREA OF THE SECOND- GENERATION ARMYWORM

With the aim to establish an “optimum” regression, as attempt is made through stepwise regression analysis to construct medium- and long-range models for forecasting the amount of migrants of the first-generation adults of armyworm into the outbreaking area of the second-generation armyworm in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia by applying precedent data of meteorological elements, general circulation features and insect pest situation. The formulas established are found to be rather satisfactory, which add a new approach to the simulation prediction of the armyworm.