The Decade-Scale Climatic Forecasting in China

Described is a new technique of decade-scale climatic forecasting, presented by a combination ofwavelet analysis and stochastic dynamics. The technique is also applied to diagnosing and forecasting theduration time of dry and wet climates in the decadal hierarchy of different areas in China. Results showthat in the decadal hierarchy, the north, southwest, and southeast of China are areas where various kindsof frequent climate disasters appear; droughts easily occur in the north and northwest, while floods oftenoccur in South China. Because this modeling technique is based on time series data, it can also be appliedin the modeling and forecasting of such time series as hydrology, earthquakes and ecology.