Monsoon Subdivisional Rainfall Dimensionality and Predictability

For summer monsoon rainfall purpose India is divided into 35 subdivisions. The daily rainfall series of one such subdivision (Konkan) has been analysed using the phase space approach. Fifteen years (1959-1973) of daily rainfall data have been utilised in this study. The analysis shows that the variability is due to the existing of strange attractor of dimension about 3.8. The predictability is estimated by computing the Lyapunov characteristic exponent. The computations show that the predictability is about 8 days.