Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR) ensemble monitoring system: Overall accuracy and efficiency

The Cloud－Aerosol－Radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system has recently been built to better understand cloud/aerosol/radiation processes and determine the uncertainties caused by different treatments of cloud/aerosol/radiation in climate models. The CAR system comprises a large scheme collection of cloud, aerosol, and radiation processes available in the literature, including those commonly used by the world's leading GCMs. In this study, detailed analyses of the overall accuracy and efficiency of the CAR system were performed. Despite the different observations used, the overall accuracies of the CAR ensemble means were found to be very good for both shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation calculations. Taking the percentage errors for July 2004 compared to ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) data over (60N,60S as an example, even among the 448 CAR members selected here, those errors of the CAR ensemble means were only about －0.67% (－0.6 Wm－2) and －0.82% (－2.0 Wm－2) for SW and LW upward fluxes at the top of atmosphere, and 0.06% (0.1 Wm－2) and －2.12% (－7.8 Wm－2) for SW and LW downward fluxes at the surface, respectively. Furthermore, model SW frequency distributions in July 2004 covered the observational ranges entirely, with ensemble means located in the middle of the ranges. Moreover, it was found that the accuracy of radiative transfer calculations can be significantly enhanced by using certain combinations of cloud schemes for the cloud cover fraction, particle effective size, water path, and optical properties, along with better explicit treatments for unresolved cloud structures.