Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO\(\vert\)+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO\(\vert\)+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO\(\vert\)+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO\(\vert\)+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.