Simulations and Projections of Winter Sea Ice in the Barents Sea by CMIP6 Climate Models

Dramatic changes in the sea ice characteristics in the Barents Sea have potential consequences for the weather and climate systems of mid-latitude continents, Arctic ecosystems, and fisheries, as well as Arctic maritime navigation. Simulations and projections of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea based on the latest 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are investigated in this study. Results show that most CMIP6 models overestimate winter sea ice in the Barents Sea and underestimate its decreasing trend. The discrepancy is mainly attributed to the simulation bias towards an overly weak ocean heat transport through the Barents Sea Opening and the underestimation of its increasing trend. The methods of observation-based model selection and emergent constraint were used to project future winter sea ice changes in the Barents Sea. Projections indicate that sea ice in the Barents Sea will continue to decline in a warming climate and that a winter ice-free Barents Sea will occur for the first time during 2042–2089 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (SSP5-8.5). Even in the observation-based selected models, the sensitivity of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea to global warming is weaker than observed, indicating that a winter ice-free Barents Sea might occur earlier than projected by the CMIP6 simulations.