Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model

In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion is an irreversible process, a memory function which can recall the observation data in the past is introduced, moreover, a special concept of self-memorization of the atmospheric motion is proposed, and a so-called self-memorization equation of the atmospheric motion has been derived. Based on the self-memorization principle, a numerical model for decadal forecast is estab lished by means of the thermodynamic equation and the precipitation equation. The verification scores of the hindcasts of the model in the period from 1 to 12 years are much higher than that of monthly weather forecasts at present.